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  Vulnerability, Human Behaviour, Hazards and Expected Utility in the Context of Risk Management  
  Authors : Avelino Mondlane; Oliver Popov; Karin Hansson
  Cite as: ijcsn.org/IJCSN-2013/2-6/IJCSN-2013-2-6-105.pdf


In this paper we use four main dimensions: Vulnerability, Human Behaviour, Hazards and Expected Utility to analyze their impact in scenario planning when cross-matched with Human Development Adjusted, Gender Inequality and Multidimensional Poverty Indexes within flood risk management strategies. We argue that the four dimensions are among the central factors behind the poor quality of life. Hence, we propose a backcasting method for a scenario planning and based on sustainable principles at long run to provide a desired and better quality of life as a contribution by the human beings in reducing vulnerability to risk and exposure to hazards. In doing so, we address best practices toward utility improvement and behaviour paradigm shift as a novel approach for participatory strategic thinking in the Multicriteria Decision Analysis for integrating flood risk management strategies related to Limpopo River Basin.


Published In : IJCSN Journal Volume 2, Issue 6

Date of Publication : 01 December 2013

Pages : 01 - 11

Figures : 07

Tables : --

Publication Link : ijcsn.org/IJCSN-2013/2-6/IJCSN-2013-2-6-105.pdf




Avelino I. Mondlane : is a risk management researcher at Stockholm University Department of Computer and Systems Science. DSV; Forum 100 Isafjordsgatan 39, SE-164 40, Kista, Sweden. He is also with the Eduardo Mondlane University for the last 20 years working in the field of project management and risk analysis at the Centre for Informatics ”CIUEM”, Julius Nyerere Avenue, P.O. Box 257, Maputo Mozambique.

Oliver B. Popov : is a Research Scientist at the Department of Computer and Systems Science of Stockholm’s University "DSV", where also he is the head of the Systems Analysis and Security Unit. Forum 100 Isafjordsgatan 39, SE-164 40, Kista, Sweden.

Karin Hansson : is working within the field of decision analysis, and in particular in the disaster risk reduction area. Modeling and simulating both pre and post coping strategies for disasters in a multi criteria fashion, taking into consideration environmental, social and financial consequences for multiple stakeholders. Karin is a member of the research group DECIDEIT. Department of Computer and Systems Science - DSV; Forum 100 Isafjordsgatan 39, SE-164 40, Kista, Sweden.









Human Behaviour


Backcasting and Scenario Planning





Handling vulnerability to risk and exposure to hazards within the backcasting method needs a paradigms shift that might shape new behaviour based on improved utility. The backcasting process might be implemented on a long run based on both scenario planning and using sustainable principles such as those developed within Natural Step Project [37]. Most natural hazards target the same segment of people because they are more vulnerable and exposed to risk. New frameworks that can contribute and induce new types of behaviour are needed including various and innovative sources of income, cultural and ethical issues. There is a pressing need to empower communities in order to include them as part of the solutions to their problems and not just remain a part the problem. Many resettling actions have failed because people are not adequately involved through the whole process, from the very beginning to the end. In most of the cases, the victims are only resettled during the periods of risk only. The findings indicate that holistic and sustainable approach in dealing with vulnerability to risk and exposure to hazards must be part of the general political agenda on national level.










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