Home
Call For Papers
Submission
Author
Registration
Publications
About
Contact Us

  Using Data Mining Technique to Analyze Crime of Bangladesh  
  Authors : Md. Abdul Awal; Jakaria Rabbi; Imran Rana
  Cite as:

 

Crime is classically unforeseeable and a social nuisance. It is not necessarily random, but neither does it take place consistently in space or time. In the recent past, there has been an enormous increase in the rate of crime, hence the significance of task to predict, prevent or solve the crimes. In this case, machine learning and data mining techniques can play an important role to discover future trends and patterns of crime. In this paper, linear regression model is used to forecast future crime trends of Bangladesh. The real dataset of crime is collected from the website of Bangladesh police. The dataset contains aggregated counts of different types of crime. Then the linear regression model is trained on this dataset. After training the model, crime forecasting is done for dacoit, robbery, murder, women & child repression, kidnapping, burglary and theft for different region of Bangladesh.

 

Published In : IJCSN Journal Volume 6, Issue 4

Date of Publication : August 2017

Pages : 489-494

Figures :03

Tables : 05

 

Md. Abdul Awal : Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, Bangladesh.

Jakaria Rabbi : Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, Bangladesh.

Imran Rana : Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Khulna University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203, Bangladesh.

 

Data Mining, Crime Forecasting, Linear Regression, Gradient Descent

At present, Data mining has become a vital part of crime detection and prevention in many countries. There are other applications of data mining in the domain of law enforcement such as determining criminal "hot spots", creating criminal profiles, and learning crime trends to hold the pledge of abating crime related problem. In this paper, data mining technique is used to forecast future crime trends of Bangladesh. For this purpose, linear regression model is trained by crime data of previous years. After training linear regression, different types of crime are forecasted for the year of 2018. All the results are shown through the table 2 to table 5. Table 1 shows that, how accurate the liner regression is to forecast future crime trends of Bangladesh. From the experimental result it is also seen that, most of the crimes are increasing with the growth of population. The results of this data mining could potentially be used to lessen and even prevent crime for the forthcoming years. The extension of this research work is to forecast the location of crime occurrence, so that prior actions can be taken to prevent crime.

 

[1] http://www.dmp.gov.bd/application/index/page/crimedata [2] http://www.police.gov.bd/Crime-Statisticsyearly. php?id=337 [3] A. H. Wahbeh, Q. A. Al-Radaideh, M. N. Al-Kabi, E. M. Al-Shawakfa, “A Comparison Study between Data Mining Tools over some Classification Methods”, International Journal of Advanced Computer Science and Applications, The SAI Organization, Special Issue on Artificial Intelligence, pp. 18-26, 2011. [4] N. Levine, “CrimeStat: A Spatial Statistic Program for the Analysis of Crime Incident Locations (v 2.0)”, Ned Levine & Associates, Houston, TX, and the National Institute of Justice, Washington, DC, May 2002. [5] S. Yamuna, N. S. Bhuvaneswari, “Data mining Techniques to Analyze and Predict Crimes”, The International Journal of Engineering and Science, Vol.1, Issue.2, pp.243-247. [6] A. L. Buczak, C. M. Gifford, “Fuzzy Association Rule Mining for Community Crime Pattern Discovery”, In ACM SIGKDD Workshop on Intelligence and Security Informatics (ISIKDD’ 10), 2012. [7] J. Han, M. Kamber, J. Pei, “Data Mining: Concepts and Techniques”, vol. 5. Morgan Kaufmann Publishers, USA, 2012. [8] S. Shojaee, A. Mustapha, F. Sidi, M. A. Jabar, “A study on classification learning algorithms to predict crime status”, In: International Journal of Digital Content Technology and its Applications (JDCTA) 7.9 (May 2013), pp. 361–369, issn: 1975-9339. [9] A. Malathi, S. S. Baboo, “Enhanced Algorithms to Identify Change in Crime Patterns”, International Journal of Combinatorial Optimization Problems and Informatics, Aztec Dragon Academic Publishing, vol. 2, no.3, pp. 32-38, 2011. [10] L. McClendon, N. Meghanathan, “Using Machine Learning Algorithms to Analyze Crime Data”, Machine Learning and Applications: An International Journal (MLAIJ) vol. 2, no. 1, March 2015. [11] C. H. Yu, M. W. Ward, M. Morabito, W. Ding, “Crime Forecasting Using Data Mining Techniques”, In Proceedings of the 2011 IEEE 11th International Conference on Data Mining Workshops (ICDMW’ 11), pp. 779-786, 2011. [12] S. V. Nath, “Crime pattern detection using data mining”, in Proceedings of the 2006 IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence and Intelligent Agent Technology, pp. 41-44, 2006. [13] S. Chainey, L. Tompson, S. Uhlig, “The utility of hotspot mapping for predicting spatial patterns of crime”, Security Journal, 21, 4–28, [104]. [14] J. S. D. Bruin, T. K. Cocx, W. A. Kosters, J. Laros, J. N. Kok, “Data mining approaches to criminal career analysis”, in Proceedings of the Sixth International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM’06), pp. 171-177, 2006. [15] P. Thongtae, S. Srisuk, “An Analysis of Data Mining Applications in Crime Domain”, In Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Computer and Information Technology Workshops, pp. 122-126, 2006. [16] S. Bagui, “An Approach to Mining Crime Patterns”, International Journal of Data Warehousing and Mining, 2, 1, pp. 50–80, 2006. [17] T. Abraham, O. D. Vel, “Investigative Profiling with Computer Forensic Log Data and Association Rules”, In Proceedings of the IEEE International Conference on Data Mining (ICDM’02), pp. 11 – 18, 2002. [18] P. Phillips, I. Lee, “Crime Analysis through Spatial Areal Aggregated Density Patterns”, GeoInformatica, Springer, vol. 15, no. 1, pp. 49-74, 2011. [19] S. M. Nirkhi, R. V. Dharaskar, V. M. Thakre. “Data Mining : A Prospective Approach for Digital Forensics”, International Journal of Data Mining & Knowledge Management Process, vol. 2, no. 6 pp. 41- 48, 2012. [20] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feature_scaling. [21] R. Wortley, L. Mazerolle, “Environmental Criminology and Crime Analysis”, Willan Publishing, UK, 2008. [22] A. Bogomolov, B. Lepri, J. Staiano, N. Oliver, F. Pianesi, and A. Pentland, “Once upon a crime: Towards crime prediction from demographics and mobile data”, In Proceedings of the ACM ICMI, to appear, (2014). [23] E. Ferrara, P. D. Meo, S. Catanese, and G. Fiumara, “Detecting criminal organizations in mobile phone networks”, Expert Systems with Applications 41, 5733–5750 (2014). [24] J. R. Zipkin, M. B. Short, and A. L. Bertozzi, “Cops on the dots in a mathematical model of urban crime and police response”, Disc Cont Dyn Syst, B 19 (2014). [25] Md. Abdul Awal, Jakaria Rabbi, Sk. Imran Hossain, and M. M. A. Hashem, " Using Linear Regression to Forecast Future Trends in Crime of Bangladesh ", Proceedings of International Conference on Informatics, Electronics & Vision (ICIEV16), Dhaka, Bangladesh, IEEE, May 2016.