Crime is classically unforeseeable and a social nuisance. It is not necessarily random, but neither does it take place
consistently in space or time. In the recent past, there has been an enormous increase in the rate of crime, hence the significance of
task to predict, prevent or solve the crimes. In this case, machine learning and data mining techniques can play an important role to
discover future trends and patterns of crime. In this paper, linear regression model is used to forecast future crime trends of
Bangladesh. The real dataset of crime is collected from the website of Bangladesh police. The dataset contains aggregated counts of
different types of crime. Then the linear regression model is trained on this dataset. After training the model, crime forecasting is
done for dacoit, robbery, murder, women & child repression, kidnapping, burglary and theft for different region of Bangladesh.
Published In:IJCSN Journal Volume 6, Issue 4
Date of Publication : August 2017
Pages : 489-494
Figures :03
Tables : 05
Md. Abdul Awal : Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Khulna
University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203,
Bangladesh.
Jakaria Rabbi : Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Khulna
University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203,
Bangladesh.
Imran Rana : Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Khulna
University of Engineering & Technology (KUET), Khulna 9203,
Bangladesh.
Data Mining, Crime Forecasting, Linear Regression, Gradient Descent
At present, Data mining has become a vital part of crime
detection and prevention in many countries. There are
other applications of data mining in the domain of law
enforcement such as determining criminal "hot spots",
creating criminal profiles, and learning crime trends to
hold the pledge of abating crime related problem. In this
paper, data mining technique is used to forecast future
crime trends of Bangladesh. For this purpose, linear
regression model is trained by crime data of previous
years. After training linear regression, different types of
crime are forecasted for the year of 2018. All the results
are shown through the table 2 to table 5. Table 1 shows
that, how accurate the liner regression is to forecast
future crime trends of Bangladesh. From the
experimental result it is also seen that, most of the
crimes are increasing with the growth of population. The
results of this data mining could potentially be used to
lessen and even prevent crime for the forthcoming years.
The extension of this research work is to forecast the
location of crime occurrence, so that prior actions can be
taken to prevent crime.
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