Prediction of CIF Components Proportion of Indonesian Import Value Using Multivariate Fractional Logit Model

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- International Merchandise Trade Statistics (IMTS) recommends to use a free on board (FOB) valuation for exports and cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) valuation for imports. CIF is a sum of FOB, freight, and insurance value of imported goods. IMTS suggests countries that record import value on CIF to have an additional method to decompose CIF into FOB, freight, and insurance value. FOB, insurance, and freight fraction follow multivariate fractional model. The model is to give prediction value of three CIF components fraction. Based on MAPE and RMSEP value, mode of transport, transit status, and group of two digit HS code are three covariates that the best precision of the predicted value.

Published In : IJCSN Journal Volume 6, Issue 6

Date of Publication : December 2017

Pages : 820-825

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Mardiah : currently pursuing masters degree program in Applied Statistics in Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia. Attained bachelor degree from STIS Jakarta in 2008.

Asep Saefuddin : is lecturer at Department of Statistics , Bogor Agricul-tural University, Indonesia. His main interest is in Geoinformatics, Spatial Analysis, Statistical Modeling.

Indahwati : is lecturer at Department of Statistics , Bogor Agricultural University, Indonesia. Her main interest is in Statistical Modelling, Sampling Design and Methodology.

CIF value decomposition, Modeling Fractional Outcomes, Quasi Maximum Likelihood

Based on the model there are three factors (covariates) which provides the lowest MAPE and RMSEP. These factors are mode of transportation, transit status, and group of two digit HS code.

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